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Author Topic: The Future of X10  (Read 152633 times)

Brian H

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #60 on: July 16, 2012, 06:04:58 AM »

I agree with the cost cutting hurting things.
All you have to do is look at the X10 schematics in the FCC Database. Any part with a * next to it means. It was not installed.  :P

I personally think most users would pay more for a stable and reliable CM15A replacement interface.
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dave w

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #61 on: July 16, 2012, 08:13:53 AM »

I agree with the cost cutting hurting things.
All you have to do is look at the X10 schematics in the FCC Database. Any part with a * next to it means. It was not installed.  :P

I personally think most users would pay more for a stable and reliable CM15A replacement interface.

One of the problems I believe X10 made repeatedly was: when hand building a prototype in the lab, all components are low to the PC board, antenna wire is properly laced, everything is just right.  So the product works well even though it has a deleted bypass cap, or a soda straw antenna. The problem manifests when the assemblers (I suspect most of the module assembly is still by hand since most of the components are leaded.) have to insert parts in a moving assembly line at a rapid pace. Hence parts do not get pushed down to the PC board, antenna wire gets rolled into little balls, and hand solder points end up cold. On the assembly line if a mistake can be made, it will be, unless product design (i.e. "designed for assembly") can compensate.

With a new design forth coming, I hope it is "clean sheet of paper" using SMD components and "pick-and-place" robotics which would reduce a lot of the inconsistent performance we saw in the early CM15A. I think X10 protocol has life left in it, although these new smartmeters from the power companies may deal yet another blow to the PLC protocol.

It may not sound like it, but I am rooting for X10!

 
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X10 Repair Depot

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #62 on: July 16, 2012, 08:54:52 AM »



Anywho the point I was trying to make was born in this statement from X10 Repair Depot:
" The new CM15A is still in development and it is scheduled to be released around December. There are still issues, primarily regarding cost, that we are working through. "

I believe X10's constant cost cutting has done them harm in the past, and the Depots statement make me think they have not learned that. A new automation controller with solid software could provide a major boost to the company and start Lamp and Appliance modules selling in large numbers as they once did. But if they "cost reduce" it to the point of compromising stability as they have done in the past...well, they will be history as far as home automation. I hope they can make it selling third party tablets and IP cameras.
$0.02

The problem that we are running into is that the cost to bring back the CM15A (either the existing unit or a replacement) will be more than the typical customer will be willing to pay. Secondly, due to the relatively high complexity of the unit we are being faced with very high minimum order quantities for the unit and some internal custom ICs that are prohibitive. If we need to order a large quantity, then we will need to plan on selling a large quantity, which we are certain will not happen at the price point that we are looking at. It would not make sense to release a unit that will not sell.

I am not going to go into the details, but we are working to get around this problem.


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Noam

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #63 on: July 16, 2012, 09:58:29 AM »



Anywho the point I was trying to make was born in this statement from X10 Repair Depot:
" The new CM15A is still in development and it is scheduled to be released around December. There are still issues, primarily regarding cost, that we are working through. "

I believe X10's constant cost cutting has done them harm in the past, and the Depots statement make me think they have not learned that. A new automation controller with solid software could provide a major boost to the company and start Lamp and Appliance modules selling in large numbers as they once did. But if they "cost reduce" it to the point of compromising stability as they have done in the past...well, they will be history as far as home automation. I hope they can make it selling third party tablets and IP cameras.
$0.02
The problem that we are running into is that the cost to bring back the CM15A (either the existing unit or a replacement) will be more than the typical customer will be willing to pay. Secondly, due to the relatively high complexity of the unit we are being faced with very high minimum order quantities for the unit and some internal custom ICs that are prohibitive. If we need to order a large quantity, then we will need to plan on selling a large quantity, which we are certain will not happen at the price point that we are looking at. It would not make sense to release a unit that will not sell.

I am not going to go into the details, but we are working to get around this problem.
Can you PLEASE emphasize to the powers-that-be that if they do change the design of the unit *in ANY way*, that they change the model number? Even adding a letter to it (ex: CM15A-B) is better than nothing. The trouble we continue to have because they didn't do that with the redesigned lamp modules is so easy to avoid.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2012, 12:54:41 PM by Noam »
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dave w

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #64 on: July 16, 2012, 11:47:32 AM »

It would not make sense to release a unit that will not sell.

I am not going to go into the details, but we are working to get around this problem.
I understand. Although with Smarthome.com backing away from X10, X10 may be the only supplier of a "mass marketed" USB contoller, which will help your market a little.
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dhouston

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #65 on: July 16, 2012, 12:38:40 PM »

...some internal custom ICs that are prohibitive.
D'uh - custom ICs are the root of the cost issue.
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stoney

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #66 on: July 22, 2012, 04:06:18 PM »

The COMPLEXITY of the unit? How long has the CM15a been around? How much did it sell for when times were better? $30.00?, $25.00? , LESS?

Basically once a program is in the computer, a person or company uses a burner (hardware device) and the operating software that one wishes to burn. At that point it's a matter is inserting a blank chip, pressing a button and "burning" the instructional software onto the chip. One chip, Ten chips or Ten Thousand chips...all the additional cost would be in the blank chips themselves.

SO...even assuming things are soo much different these days, how much more in the way of instructions is needed for these "NEW" chips to be able to allow these NEW CM15a's to operate properly? Compared to the CM15a's that I and lots of other people have, how are the proposed ones different? How is such a steep cost justified (unless we have to make them here in the USA instead of outsourcing them!). Sorry about the touch of sarcasm. <rant over> :'

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Brian H

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #67 on: July 22, 2012, 04:35:12 PM »

$49.99 was the price I always saw.
Early sales where only the CM15A with emailed registration number download link. You had to buy any added plugins separately.
In recent years. The price was still $49.99 but some packages included many of the plug ins or plug ins and a few modules.
My oldest one has a Date Code of 04J41. 41st week of 2004.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2012, 04:44:53 PM by Brian H »
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X10 Repair Depot

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #68 on: July 23, 2012, 09:30:38 AM »

The COMPLEXITY of the unit? How long has the CM15a been around? How much did it sell for when times were better? $30.00?, $25.00? , LESS?

Basically once a program is in the computer, a person or company uses a burner (hardware device) and the operating software that one wishes to burn. At that point it's a matter is inserting a blank chip, pressing a button and "burning" the instructional software onto the chip. One chip, Ten chips or Ten Thousand chips...all the additional cost would be in the blank chips themselves.

SO...even assuming things are soo much different these days, how much more in the way of instructions is needed for these "NEW" chips to be able to allow these NEW CM15a's to operate properly? Compared to the CM15a's that I and lots of other people have, how are the proposed ones different? How is such a steep cost justified (unless we have to make them here in the USA instead of outsourcing them!). Sorry about the touch of sarcasm. <rant over> :'



You are describing the procedure to burn a ROM - I am not talking about burning standard ICs. The CM15A has at least two ICs (not ROMs) that are no longer being produced. We can have them made on a custom basis, but the minimum order quantity to have a custom IC created is huge and the cost is high.

Here's a lesson about producing electronics...

As I stated in the first post, the factory that produced the CM15A is no longer in business. Although we still have the schematics and diagrams of all components, we need to find factories to produce custom ICs, produce the plastics, produce the circuit boards, and one to assemble everything. This is exactly the same for all other items that we have had produced since the factory closed. However, everything about the CM15A is much more complicated then every other item that we sell. The housing is more complex, as is the circuit board, there are non-standard electronic components, and even the packaging. The complexity of each step of the process determines both the cost and the minimum order quantity. In addition, since we are using a new factory, all new jigs, forms, and fixtures will need to be built, and more complex the item is, the higher the tooling cost is.

It does not matter how long the item has been around, all of this will need to be recreated.

As I stated earlier in the thread, the selling price would be so high that we feel that we will be unable to sell this item.

We do have a plan to bring a replacement unit out, but I will not go into the details at this time.
 
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JeffVolp

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #69 on: July 23, 2012, 09:57:19 AM »

I agree with everything Repair Depot said.  Discontinued components are a continual problem.  It is a very serious issue for military avionic hardware which, like most X10 products, have very long operating lives.

To put cost into perspective, the lowest price X10 controller available from a competitor is the ADI Ocleot, which costs almost $200 without a powerline interface or RF capability.  Adding those costs another $100.  The JDS HomeRunner costs about $500.

It should be clear to everyone the bargains that we have received from X10 over the years.  It costs me almost as much for an empty plastic case as X10 was selling lamp and appliance modules for last year.  At one point I considered buying X10 XPPF filter modules just for the plastic cases.

Jeff
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dhouston

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #70 on: July 23, 2012, 12:02:10 PM »

The CM15A has at least two ICs (not ROMs) that are no longer being produced.
No wonder I was unhappy with the two CM15As I bought. They each have exactly one IC (Cypress CY7C63723) and it's not custom although it may have since been discontinued. If you are referring to the third party RF receiver (uses HiMark RX3310A IC) and RF transmitter (no IC), both were poor choices to begin with - using a narrowband superhet receiver when all of the existing remotes, etc. use poorly tuned LC transmitters was foolish - and Wen Shing (Taiwan) has better off-the-shelf receivers and transmitters. It was also foolish to use the Cypress IC - it would have been both simpler and cheaper to stick with a PIC or AVR and use a USB-Serial adapter (either internal using Silicon Labs, Prolific or FTDI ICs) or external using any of a myriad of adapters (based on the same Silicon Labs, Prolific or FTDI ICs). For example...

The only non-standard feature of the other components is that most designers stopped using them 15 years ago. Let's hope your new design uses SMD.
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JeffVolp

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #71 on: July 23, 2012, 01:27:44 PM »

No wonder I was unhappy with the two CM15As I bought. They each have exactly one IC (Cypress CY7C63723) and it's not custom although it may have since been discontinued.

Gee Dave, mine has 3 ICs, not including the ones in the transmitter and receiver.

Jeff
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dhouston

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #72 on: July 23, 2012, 01:44:14 PM »

Gee Dave, mine has 3 ICs, not including the ones in the transmitter and receiver.
Well, yeah - but neither the 4N35 nor 24C64 are discontinued nor in short supply. ::)
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pomonabill221

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #73 on: July 23, 2012, 02:16:06 PM »

Gee Dave, mine has 3 ICs, not including the ones in the transmitter and receiver.
Well, yeah - but neither the 4N35 nor 24C64 are discontinued nor in short supply. ::)
Yeah... 4n35=opto coupler  24c64=EEPROM   VERY standard/cross referencable items!  The Cypress is also xreferencable, probably even pin compatable so the pc board doesn't need to change.
The rf receiver could be the rsc1 (I think that is the one I bought and replaced in my Ninjas and CM15A).
The rf xmitter could be sub'd out as well (cheaper probably).
Vreg.... standard 5v fixed 7805... pennies in quantity.
2n9014/9015.... simple npn/pnp amplifier xsistors.
1n4001.... pennies in quntity
other diodes/resistors.... use SMT's  cheap!

  Ever thought of offering as a kit?
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pomonabill221

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Re: The Future of X10
« Reply #74 on: July 23, 2012, 02:32:45 PM »



Anywho the point I was trying to make was born in this statement from X10 Repair Depot:
" The new CM15A is still in development and it is scheduled to be released around December. There are still issues, primarily regarding cost, that we are working through. "

I believe X10's constant cost cutting has done them harm in the past, and the Depots statement make me think they have not learned that. A new automation controller with solid software could provide a major boost to the company and start Lamp and Appliance modules selling in large numbers as they once did. But if they "cost reduce" it to the point of compromising stability as they have done in the past...well, they will be history as far as home automation. I hope they can make it selling third party tablets and IP cameras.
$0.02

The problem that we are running into is that the cost to bring back the CM15A (either the existing unit or a replacement) will be more than the typical customer will be willing to pay.

How do you know what the customer is willing to pay?  Have you done any polls/research?  Just trying to get a handle on the expected cost, if that info is available.
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